A few months ago, I read that some advisers were advising their clients to stay out of the market until the FTSE100 dropped to 5800. At the time I remarked that it seemed quite brave and I try to avoid being a hostage to fortune. I wonder, today, how their clients feel having confidently encouraged to buy shares at 5800 now we are at 5500. There is something about the human condition that is drawn to people who confidently assert how the future will pan out, there must a deep seated need to remove the uncertainty. It seems that modern day soothsayers are every bit as important to society as their ancient forbears. When will we treat with suspicion those who know what lies ahead? You can barely watch the TV News without having to hear some ‘expert’ telling us what will happen next week, month, year. It is something of a pity that we don’t have an end of year review of their accuracy. People have launched (initially) dazzling investment careers on the strength of a lucky guess only for them to end up with feet of clay. One ladies investment club in the US even sold a truck load of books and made many a speaking engagement with very highbrow endorsement before it transpired that the treasurer had miscalculated their returns. Thinking that the future is predictable is a sure way to investment disappointment in the same league as long range weather forecasts. All it takes is a butterfly beating its wings unexpectedly somewhere to ruin everything with a hurricane. Far better to plan for uncertainty and believe in the long term. On average, Summer is warmer than Spring but it doesn’t feel it every day. My prediction for the rest of the year? Most market forecasts will be wrong, if only we could tell which ones. I predict steady growth in the number of confident predictions.