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Falling Oil Price Transfers Wealth Away from OPEC

Posted by: Scott Taylor Posted Date: Wednesday, 19 November 2008 15:20

Since oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel earlier this year, they have fallen by 60% to under $55.

According to OPEC’s president (OPEC represents many of the oil producing nations, particularly in the Middle East and the Third World) this has cost the organisation’s members some $700bn. This represents a massive transfer of wealth away from these nations, some of which are quite poor, such as Nigeria, and some of which are rich enough, thank you, like Saudi Arabia. The major beneficiaries will be the developed countries and the non-oil producing developing world, such as China and India and this may go some way towards alleviating the worst of the recession.

The only problem is that we also need that oil wealth directly recycled back to us by way of investment and purchases of products and services, so it is not completely positive for us.
 
Whether you think our economy will benefit more from Arabian princes buying football clubs or cheap oil will colour your view on whether we stand to gain from a fall in the price of oil. Supporters of Manchester City and the Scottish National Party may wish it had stayed a little higher.

Borrowing to fund your pension

Posted by: Scott Taylor Posted Date: Monday, 10 November 2008 16:14

The FT at the weekend touched upon an idea about pension funding. It is nothing new and I have longed mused upon it but it is worthy of dusting off again for a flight of fancy, if nothing else.

 
The idea is that of borrowing to fund your pension in one fell swoop, or substantially so, in any case.
 
For most people, there will be two big assets that they require in their life: a property in which to live and a pension fund big enough to sustain them in retirement. According to the BBC, the average property in the UK costs £224,000 and, assuming that median full time employee on just under £24,000 requires £10,000 per annum of private pension, the average pension fund would need to be of similar size.
 
It has become accepted practice over the last forty years or so that working people would borrow to buy their property, could it make sense to do the same with pensions? To answer that, it makes sense to examine the reason for borrowing rather than saving.
 
The problem with saving to buy a property, given anything like current values, is that it would take a very long time to do so during which you would not have the benefit of the property and you would have to pay another property owner rent to keep a roof over your head. Not that long ago it was common for ordinary families to share a house with a number of other families, often including the landlord. That obviously serves to keep a lid on the rent but very few of today would relish the prospect of one bath a week and no prospect of a Sky subscription.
 
So, we have come to accept that we either borrow a large sum to buy or we pay a high rent.
 
The problems with pensions are different. Whether you have a well funded pension makes no difference to you at all until you come to retire. This means that it doesn’t matter if you build it gradually as you do not have to provide a pension for your young family.
 
The problem for those building up a pension fund is the need to be efficient. If your pension is invested in cash, you will be lucky to receive any real return at all and will, therefore, have to contribute yourself every penny needed. This is why most will opt for at least some exposure to investments which have a chance of delivering a decent real return; that way you can build up a bigger fund with less money.
 
The problem with these type of assets is that they expose you to investment risk and they may go down as well as up in value and one way of reducing this risk is to have a longer time horizon. If you are viewing shares over thirty years, you may consider the risk of not receiving a decent return to be lower than if you are looking over just five years. So, it pays to be invested for longer to be more efficient and you want the maximum risk exposure to be at the very start, just when people have very little in their pension plan. Near retirement, it may make sense to reduce the risk but this coincides with the greatest fund value. This skew robs many of an efficient pension scheme and increases the risk they face.

If there  were a mechanism for people to borrow early on to make large contributions, just when many can afford none at all, perhaps we could ensure that people reached retirement with well funded private pensions.  The cost of servicing the debt would probably be comparable to the pension contributions they would have been making anyway and, with a bit of sickness cover in place, they would be better protected against teh risk of illness cutting short their working life and ability to fund a pension, saving the state a fortune in benefits.

Savers lose out as rates tumble

Posted by: Scott Taylor Posted Date: Friday, 07 November 2008 10:13

One of the drawbacks of being a saver, that is, in cash, is that the needs of the economy and government are often against you. You will only receive a decent nominal return on your money (i.e. a high interest rate) when inflation has eroded your savings. And, given that policy makers seem to have a tendency to allow for higher inflation than they officially target, the odds seem stacked against you.

Recent periods of genuine deflation have been thin on the ground in the UK so most of the inflation errors have been in exceeding target. This means that for much of the time, the interest rate must have been too low and, therefore, the rates paid to depositors fail to compensate adequately.
 
Savers find it almost impossible to gauge the damage done by inflation, focussing solely on the nominal value of their funds so they tend not to be too bothered by this lack of compensation.
 
So, if you are a sever receiving 3% on your deposit (now that rates have fallen) and you pay high rate tax, you will receive 1.8% per annum on your money. Given that RPI is currently more than 5%, your money is losing more than 3% every year in real terms. Extend that over a long period and your wealth has been seriously damaged.
 

Of course, part of the justification for reducing rates is that inflation expectations have been reduced so, in time, the return gap should be reduced. The only problem is that if inflation does decrease considerably, rates may well come down again, compounding your misfortune. It may even out over time but the experience of the Seventies shows that it can take a very long time indeed, more than twenty years for cash then.

However, if you can take a twenty year perspective, you might be better off considering shares.

 

 

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